← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 45% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 25% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| AS Roma −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Yacine Adli · AC Milan |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 56' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 71' | 🟨 | Simon Kjær · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · AS Roma |
| 84' | ⚽ | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 1566.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1892.87 | 1802.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.70 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.34 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 27.90 |
| state index | 1.26 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.61 |