← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Ferrieri Caputi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.95 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 15% | 16% | 6.75 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 55% | 1.77 |
| US Lecce −0.75 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 43% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 57% | 2.25 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Valentin Gendrey · US Lecce |
| 58' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · US Lecce |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 957.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1761.28 | 1585.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.04 | 0.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| league points | 30.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.71 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.11 |