← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 42% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| AS Roma −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta BC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Matteo Ruggeri · Atalanta BC |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Éderson · Atalanta BC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · AS Roma |
| 74' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emil Holm · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 6.00 | 2776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1803.51 | 1811.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.22 | 21.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.89 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 27.88 |
| state index | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.06 |