← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 64% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.40 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 13% | 14% | 7.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Salernitana +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 32' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 39' | ⚽ | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 43' | 🟨 | Federico Gatti · Juventus FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 53' | 🟥 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 65' | ⚽ | Samuel Iling Junior · Juventus FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 🟨 |
| Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 98.00 | 981.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1538.56 | 1858.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | 21.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| league points | 12.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.55 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.52 |