← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 12' | ⚽ | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · SS Lazio |
| 44' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · Udinese Calcio |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 59' | ⚽ | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 98.00 | 950.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1677.47 | 1806.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.19 | 6.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | -1.26 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.95 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.67 |