← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 36% | 42% | 2.64 | value: +10% |
| AS Roma win | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| AS Roma +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 32' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 60' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · AS Roma |
| 62' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟥 | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | 🟨 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟨 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 86' | 🟥 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sardar Azmoun · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 905.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1792.14 | 1895.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.83 | -33.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 7.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.34 |