β Serie A 2023-24 Β· Sat, Dec 23, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio β0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hellas Verona FC β0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 45% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | π¨ | Antoine Makoumbou Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | π¨ | Ondrej Duda Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 51' | π¨ | Antoine Makoumbou Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | π₯ | Antoine Makoumbou Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 53' | β½ | Cyril Ngonge Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | π¨ | TomΓ‘Ε‘ Suslov Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | π¨ | Nicolas Viola Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | π¨ | Cyril Ngonge Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | π¨ | Ibrahim Sulemana Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | β½ | Milan ΔuriΔ Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 175.00 | 356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1589.14 | 1603.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.01 | 3.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.99 |