← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 65% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.73 | value: +5% |
| Salernitana win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +1.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AC Milan +1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.33 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Vincenzo Fiorillo · Salernitana |
| 17' | ⚽ | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 42' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 44' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 63' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pasquale Mazzocchi · Salernitana |
| 74' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 82.00 | 1543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1520.13 | 1829.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.66 | 4.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 40.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -2.13 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.59 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.30 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.53 |