← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Dec 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 77% | 75% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.31 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 8% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana |
| 47' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matteo Ruggeri · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Aleksei Miranchuk · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2756.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1759.36 | 1525.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.55 | 1.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| league points | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.99 | 8.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.35 | — |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.84 |