← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 38% | 44% | 2.56 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 29% | 23% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 65% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 35% | 3.08 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 9' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · AS Roma |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sam Beukema · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 37' | ⚽ | Nikola Moro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Rasmus Kristensen · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 72' | 🟨 | Edoardo Bove · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 472.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1776.05 | 1805.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.56 | 12.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.70 |