← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 39% | 41% | 2.53 | value: +4% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 33% | 30% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.92 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Marcus Pedersen · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟥 | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 13 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 77.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1653.74 | 1651.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.66 | -18.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 27.07 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.51 |