← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 68% | 76% | 1.45 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.25 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 13% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| SSC Napoli −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 66% | 1.60 | value: +6% |
| Under | 40% | 34% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Amir Rrahmani · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Cagliari Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tommaso Augello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · SSC Napoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| André Zambo Anguissa · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 45.00 | 349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1893.37 | 1605.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.75 | 15.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 4.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 27.17 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.94 |