← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Dec 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Empoli win | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 31% | 35% | 3.24 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Lecce −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena |