← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 49% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +4% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| AS Roma −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 5' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟥 | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | ⚽ | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Alfred Duncan · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | 🟥 | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 892.00 | 892.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 4.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1803.30 | 1807.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.40 | 18.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 7.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.10 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.89 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.96 |