← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.59 | value: +4% |
| Salernitana win | 20% | 27% | 4.84 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Salernitana +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 9' | ⚽ | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 20' | ⚽ | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 36' | 🟨 | Loum Tchaouna · Salernitana |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pasquale Mazzocchi · Salernitana |
| 42' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 44' | 🟨 | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Flavius Daniliuc · Salernitana |
| 54' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 75' |
| ⚽ |
| Simy · Salernitana |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kacper Urbański · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 465.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1532.26 | 1712.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | 11.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| league points | 8.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -1.28 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.02 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.24 |