← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 27% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 41% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 59% | 1.97 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Matheus Henrique · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kristian Thorstvedt · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 63' | 🟥 | Daniel Boloca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · AS Roma |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rasmus Kristensen · AS Roma |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matheus Henrique · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Erlić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 885.00 | 885.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1669.43 | 1795.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.67 | -9.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 27.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.14 |