← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 58% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.18 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · Udinese Calcio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 26' | 🟨 | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Udinese Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 57' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Udinese Calcio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 878.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1793.26 | 1669.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.34 | 21.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.46 |