← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 39% | 37% | 2.48 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 31% | 33% | 3.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Frosinone Calcio −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 60% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 40% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alessandro Vogliacco · Genoa CFC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Stefano Sabelli · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Matías Soulé · Frosinone Calcio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Anthony Oyono · Frosinone Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Reinier · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days | 148.00 | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1655.54 | 1649.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.61 | -7.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 13.76 | 15.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.89 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.96 |