← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 37% | 40% | 2.69 | value: +8% |
| Empoli win | 37% | 30% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 12' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 22' | ⚽ | Matheus Henrique · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jacopo Fazzini · Empoli |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jacopo Fazzini · Empoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 37' | 🟨 | Matheus Henrique · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Matías Viña · Empoli |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 86.00 | 878.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1628.08 | 1658.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.97 | -22.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 15.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.31 |