← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 51% | 54% | 1.92 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 21% | 20% | 4.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Salernitana +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 50% | 2.31 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Flavius Daniliuc · Salernitana |
| 55' | ⚽ | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 66' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 79' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 88' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 🟨 |
| Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 55.00 | 907.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1523.44 | 1761.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.02 | 16.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 14.85 | 12.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -1.48 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 0.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.35 |