← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Nov 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 44% | 44% | 2.18 | fair |
| Empoli win | 29% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.59 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.11 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Enzo Barrenechea · Frosinone Calcio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Reinier · Frosinone Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pol Lirola · Frosinone Calcio |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marvin Çuni · Frosinone Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Arijon Ibrahimović · Frosinone Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Filippo Ranocchia · Empoli |
| 86' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days | 128.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1651.63 | 1617.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.76 | 12.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.25 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.81 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 27.34 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.44 |