← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 43% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +9% |
| AC Milan win | 29% | 24% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 31' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 50' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Natan · SSC Napoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luka Romero · AC Milan |
| 63' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · SSC Napoli |
| 65' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · AC Milan |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · SSC Napoli |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 🟨 |
| Natan · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟥 | Natan · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 120.00 | 1489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1866.66 | 1840.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.35 | 11.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.46 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.28 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.64 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 25.41 |
| state index | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 1.26 |