← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 41% | 42% | 2.34 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Salernitana −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 61% | 1.93 | value: +17% |
| Over | 49% | 39% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matteo Prati · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Agustín Martegani · Salernitana |
| 79' | ⚽ | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antoine Makoumbou · Cagliari Calcio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1532.17 | 1541.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.84 | -31.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 13.88 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.46 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.23 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.15 |