← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 56% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 18% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AS Roma −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 57% | 1.99 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · AC Monza |
| 41' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · AC Monza |
| 41' | 🟥 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · AC Monza |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Machín · AC Monza |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Gagliardini · AC Monza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 843.00 | 416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1795.61 | 1707.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.77 | 22.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 13.77 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 27.64 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.73 |