← Serie A 2023-24 · Wed, Sep 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 50% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 22% | 19% | 4.73 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 48% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 52% | 2.33 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 40' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · AC Milan |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mateusz Wieteska · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gaetano Oristanio · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 269.00 | 1457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1566.63 | 1831.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.06 | 16.59 |
| eye test v1 | -1.46 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 4.15 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.10 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.52 |