← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 54% | 47% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.15 | value: +9% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Juventus FC +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.49 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Matías Viña · Juventus FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Daniel Boloca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Danilo · Juventus FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matías Viña · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 78' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · Juventus FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Federico Gatti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 814.00 | 875.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1653.25 | 1889.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.47 | 30.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | -1.34 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 26.84 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.81 |