← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.88 | fair |
| Empoli win | 11% | 12% | 9.23 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Empoli −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 59% | 1.82 | value: +8% |
| Under | 46% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 8' | ⚽ | Renato Sanches · AS Roma |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Alberto Grassi · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 39' | 🟨 | Renato Sanches · AS Roma |
| 39' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · Empoli |
| 55' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 79' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 82' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 86' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ |
| Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 808.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1778.78 | 1617.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.44 | -41.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| league points | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.87 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.69 |