← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Spezia win | 20% | 22% | 5.06 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AS Roma −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
| 14' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 43' | ⚽ | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeroen Zoet · Spezia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 88' | 🟥 | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eldor Shomurodov · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 703.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1803.54 | 1560.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.89 | -3.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 60.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.15 |