← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 56% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 19% | 26% | 5.23 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 49' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sulemana · Hellas Verona FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Juan Cabal · Hellas Verona FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Hellas Verona FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 1342.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1874.35 | 1614.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.59 | -16.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 67.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.01 | 7.35 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -1.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.08 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.76 |