← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 5.00 | value: +26% |
| AC Monza win | 16% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1 | 54% | 1.84 |
| AC Monza −1 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nicolò Rovella · AC Monza |
| 45' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Andrea Colpani · AC Monza |
| 63' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟥 | Marlon · AC Monza |
| 74' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · AC Monza |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2559.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1789.72 | 1699.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.41 | 25.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 61.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 7.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.08 |