← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 87% | 81% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 13% | 11.25 | value: +47% |
| Sampdoria win | 4% | 6% | 25.53 | value: +64% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli −2.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Sampdoria −2.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 75% | 66% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 34% | 4.33 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |