← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Jun 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 51% | 43% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Empoli win | 24% | 31% | 4.20 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Empoli +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Empoli |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli |
| 89' | 🟥 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 367.00 | 732.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1659.79 | 1816.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.35 | 2.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 43.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.35 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 29.12 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.78 |