← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, Jun 2, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 38% | 41% | 2.53 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 36% | 36% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Aleksa Terzić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · ACF Fiorentina |
| 46' | ⚽ | Arthur Cabral · ACF Fiorentina |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Arthur Cabral · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 81' | 🟥 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | 🟥 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riccardo Marchizza · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 701.00 | 701.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1682.72 | 1794.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.29 | 12.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.99 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 1.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 26.82 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 2.23 |