← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 78% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.18 | value: +6% |
| Cremonese win | 8% | 5% | 12.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1.75 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Cremonese −1.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Elseid Hysaj · SS Lazio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 54' | ⚽ | Pablo Galdames · Cremonese |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Manuel Lazzari · Cremonese |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pablo Galdames · Cremonese |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 726.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1814.03 | 1526.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.56 | 8.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 68.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 6.89 | 8.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -1.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.21 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.83 |