← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 42% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.34 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 28% | 35% | 3.60 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| US Lecce −0.25 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 54' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · AC Monza |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lameck Banda · US Lecce |
| 65' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 82' | 🟨 | Federico Baschirotto · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morten Hjulmand · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Colombo · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 269.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1714.44 | 1589.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.33 | 2.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 52.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 25.85 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.25 |