← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 48% | 52% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 24% | 20% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SSC Napoli +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kim Min-jae · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Amir Rrahmani · SSC Napoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · SSC Napoli |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 269.00 | 757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1723.69 | 1950.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.40 | -21.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 50.00 | 86.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 2.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.66 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.39 |