← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 42% | 50% | 2.29 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 29% | 23% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| AS Roma −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.31 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 25' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Filippo Missori · AS Roma |
| 42' | 🟨 | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · ACF Fiorentina |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ola Solbakken · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Luka Jović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mile Svilar · AS Roma |
| 77' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| ⚽ |
| Jonathan Ikoné · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 695.00 | 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1785.64 | 1811.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.18 | -10.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 50.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 28.08 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 0.98 |