← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, May 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 54% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
| Empoli win | 20% | 18% | 5.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Juventus FC +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.20 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 21' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Luperto · Empoli |
| 47' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · Empoli |
| 56' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Empoli |
| 76' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Juventus FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 355.00 | 751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1632.56 | 1898.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 39.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.68 |