← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, May 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 62% | 69% | 1.58 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 14% | 11% | 7.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| AS Roma −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.17 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 47' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 54' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 69' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nemanja Matić · AS Roma |
| 85' | 🟨 | Guillermo Ochoa · Salernitana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Flavius Daniliuc · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Zalewski · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 690.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1817.30 | 1632.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.99 | 37.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| league points | 59.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 9.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 26.29 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.80 |