← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 85% | 79% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 14% | 10.26 | value: +44% |
| Sampdoria win | 4% | 7% | 23.23 | value: +54% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −2.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Sampdoria −2.25 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 60% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 40% | 2.87 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 20' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 23' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 27' | 🟨 | Koray Günter · Sampdoria |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Sampdoria |
| 63' | ⚽ | Brahim Díaz · AC Milan |
| 68' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marios Oikonomou · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 1327.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1859.00 | 1517.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.29 | -21.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 61.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.81 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 30.14 |
| state index | 0.83 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.43 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.88 |