← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 66% | 64% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 14% | 15% | 7.08 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Atalanta BC −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Darko Lazović · Hellas Verona FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Hellas Verona FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2544.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1789.03 | 1620.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.63 | 0.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 58.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -1.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 27.79 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.87 |