← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, May 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 46% | 44% | 2.11 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AC Monza −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · AC Monza |
| 13' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luca Caldirola · AC Monza |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 60' | ⚽ | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 68' | 🟥 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marlon · AC Monza |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| ⚽ |
| Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 687.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1697.38 | 1702.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.88 | 55.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| league points | 44.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.67 | 26.85 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.02 |