← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, May 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 46% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Sampdoria +0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.17 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Bruno Amione · Sampdoria |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alessandro Zanoli · Sampdoria |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 59' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · Sampdoria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marko Pjaca · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli |
| 77' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 226.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1516.19 | 1634.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.57 | -1.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.95 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 30.92 | 26.37 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.18 |