← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 65% | 72% | 1.49 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.85 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 15% | 13% | 6.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Internazionale Milano −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +6% |
| Under | 41% | 35% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |