← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, May 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 56% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 17% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 48% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 52% | 2.35 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 13' | 🟨 | Lameck Banda · US Lecce |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · US Lecce |
| 51' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · US Lecce |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rémi Oudin · US Lecce |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Wladimiro Falcone · US Lecce |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · US Lecce |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Joan González · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 710.00 | 680.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1812.00 | 1585.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.87 | -8.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 64.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.30 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.67 |