← Serie A 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| AC Monza +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 24' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 39' | ⚽ | Luca Caldirola · AC Monza |
| 43' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 244.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1674.20 | 1824.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.48 | -3.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 44.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 44.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.01 | 4.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 28.13 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 2.46 |