← Serie A 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 57% | 51% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 19% | 25% | 5.03 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jeremy Toljan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Toma Bašić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 701.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1813.84 | 1713.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.36 | -15.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.63 |
| league points | 61.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.27 |