← Serie A 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.78 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 22% | 22% | 4.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0.75 | 54% | 1.80 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 36' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Arthur Cabral · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Flavius Daniliuc · Salernitana |
| 51' | 🟨 | Erik Botheim · Salernitana |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 59' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · ACF Fiorentina |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 84' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Salernitana |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 456.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1624.94 | 1788.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.47 | -10.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 34.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.76 |