← Serie A 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 61% | 67% | 1.59 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 14% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Juventus FC −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Leandro Paredes · Juventus FC |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Assan Ceesay · US Lecce |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · US Lecce |
| 55' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Juventus FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · US Lecce |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 732.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1884.14 | 1598.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.76 | -5.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 1.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| league points | 60.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -1.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.41 |