← Serie A 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 69% | 75% | 1.41 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.25 | fair |
| Spezia win | 13% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Spezia −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 51% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 49% | 2.53 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 32' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 40' | 🟨 | Simone Bastoni · Spezia |
| 48' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mehdi Bourabia · Spezia |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kevin Agudelo · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days |
| 2527.00 |
| 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1751.90 | 1506.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.64 | -15.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 55.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.89 | 4.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.23 | — |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.51 |